to find, within this body of research, any studies specifically attempting to model forested land changes in the northwoods of Minnesota. 

Although the range in study location and scope was very large, all these studies generally have a number of commonalities in constructing their land use change models.  Almost every study examined included as independent variables some measure of the change in the number of people concentrated in an area measured usually in population density, a measure of the amount of agricultural land use going on in an area or of the profitability of agricultural cultivation, and frequently the studies also included a measure of soil quality characteristics for the area being studied.  It was from these commonalities that I based my regression model for the MN northwoods, although I was unfortunately unable to find a county by county soil quality dataset for the area I studied. 

In addition to their similarities, though, studies that examined specific locations often included other variables pertinent to the area itself; the model Parks and Murray created for the Pacific Northwest, for example, included a measure of the steepness of the land because the area is mountainous and the steepest slopes are difficult to farm, build, or remove trees from.  On the other hand, Munroe, Croissant, and York’s 2005 study concentrated on the changes in forestry around an urban area and therefore included variables to capture distance to a city center and zoning regulations on land development.  Most of these studies examining changes in the amount of forested land use are relatively recent (within the last 15 years) owning to the fact that they often rely on satellite imagery to determine the amount of forested land in an area, and this technology has not only been accessible fairly recently.  Generally, however, the studies support what one might consider common sense conclusions:  in nearly every model, the change in forested land was significantly correlated with the most popular alternative land uses of the area, most often agricultural cultivation or in some cases urbanization.  A more detailed description of each article researched as a background for my work can be found by clicking on the article names below.

Parks, P.J., et. al.  2000.  “Using Resource Economics to Anticipate Forest Land Use Change in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic Region.”  Environmental Monitoring and Assessment.  Vol. 63, pp. 175-185.

School, J. and A. Schwartz.  2005.  “Making Your Resources Count: A New Idea for Leveraging a Region’s Natural Infrastructure.”  Planning.  August/September, pp. 38-41.