The Chaotic Logistic Population Model

Written for the Envision It! Workshop

Steven McKelvey
Mathematics and Computer Science
Saint Olaf College

The Model

As a reintroduction to STELLA, let us consider a fun model with limited applications to biological systems. This is the second version of the logistic model which I call the Chaotic Logistic Model. This model is widely known and often used as the quintessential example of chaotic behavior in dynamical systems.

The difference equation is normally given in the form

X(i+1) = a*X(i)*(1-X(i))

where a is a parameter whose value is choosen to be between zero and four.

This equation is not in a form which can be exploited by STELLA. Instead, the change from one time to the next must be explicitly determined. We can convert the usual chaotic logistic model into the form needed by STELLA by doing the usual dirty trick, subtracting X(i) from both sides of the equation. This gives us:

X(i+1)-X(i) = a*X(i)*(1-X(i)) = a*X(i) - a*X(i)*X(i)

where the first term, a*X(i) is the inflow into the population model, and a*X(i)*X(i) is the outflow.

The STELLA diagram for this model is:

Diagram of STELLA model goes here.

The intial conditions on the reservoir should be between zero and one. If the model is running correctly, the "population" should always remain between zero and one.

This simple model displays many complex behaviors. For small values of the parameter a extinction is a stable equilibrium. For slightly largers values of a other stable equilibrium appear. As the value of a increases even further period doubling, a common feature of chaotic systems can be observed. Finally, for values of a greater than 3.87 true chaos is achieved.

Exercises

  1. Using STELLA, build a model of the chaotic logistic population formula. Create a plot so you can observe the output of the model. Do not forget to set DT to one. Set the model to run for 200 years.
  2. Determine the largest value of the parameter a for which zero is the stable equilibrium.
  3. Determine the value of the parameter a at which period doubling occurs. Find a parameter value which results in a four-cycle. This should be observed as a increases past the period doubling regime.
  4. Can you determine when (for what value of a) periodic behavior gives way to chaos?

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